[SMM December lithium price forecast] where is the bottom of lithium carbonate all the way down? Lithium hydroxide continues to decline?

SMM News: recently, lithium carbonate prices before the sharp decline can be described as calm, this week battery-grade lithium carbonate prices continue to maintain 7.8-81000 yuan / ton, the transaction range is significantly narrowed compared with last month.

For lithium carbonate prices in December, SMM expects that without emergencies such as the closure of larger cathode material plants, lithium carbonate prices remain stable in general and there may be downside risks. The decline will not be too large, estimated at about 3000 yuan to 5000 yuan per ton.

Since March this year, the price of lithium carbonate has fallen sharply for nearly half a year. According to SMM research, the huge decline is mainly due to large stocks in the salt lake area of Qinghai, where lithium resources are important, in order to meet the production and marketing targets. Manufacturers have carried out a large number of destocking behavior, as a result of which the price of lithium carbonate has fallen sharply, while the price of industrial lithium carbonate has been a drag on the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate.

However, according to SMM, at present, affected by the weather in Qinghai, lithium production has generally been reduced by 10 to 15 percent, and the scale of production reduction is not large, so the price of lithium carbonate will not rise, and enterprises have almost no inventory, and the production and sales targets have been completed. There is no such thing as selling stocks at a low price in order to meet the targets.

The current lithium carbonate price has been in the downstream manufacturers in the heart of the expected price range, but also in the upstream bearing range. At the same time, the results of the closely watched lithium mine negotiations will be announced in mid-December, when the specific price of long lithium ore will be known, which may boost or suppress the future market, but it will not have much impact in the short term.

At the same time, according to the communication between SMM and upstream and downstream manufacturers, the price of lithium carbonate (industrial grade and battery grade) has remained stable in the past three weeks, and upstream and downstream manufacturers have a good attitude towards this. According to industry insiders, the previous drastic price changes have a great impact on the downstream procurement mentality, and now the price remains stable, which has a positive effect on the market trading mentality.

"Click to view lithium carbonate December detailed forecast [SMM analysis] fourth quarter, lithium carbonate price stability reasons for detailed explanation and forward-looking forecast

In terms of lithium hydroxide, it has been on a downward trend since mid-June this year. Recently, the price of lithium hydroxide has also fallen. Last week, the price of SMM battery grade lithium hydroxide was 11.5-125000 yuan / ton. Among them, the mainstream transaction price of battery micro-powder lithium hydroxide has reached 123000 yuan / ton, but compared with the industrial grade lithium hydroxide, its price is still high. Recently, the demand for industrial grade lithium hydroxide downstream is relatively weak, usually once a month procurement frequency, has been reduced to nearly two months procurement. At the same time, due to the previous period of industrial grade lithium hydroxide prices continue to decline, downstream manufacturers purchase mentality is also very cautious, no hoarding intention.

Lithium hydroxide price trend:

For December lithium hydroxide prices, SMM is expected to slow down, a monthly decline of about 2000 to 3000 yuan / ton. SMM believes that the decline in lithium hydroxide prices is mainly due to the release of upstream capacity and weak downstream demand.

According to SMM statistics, the total domestic lithium hydroxide capacity in 2018 is about 35500 tons, of which Ganfeng lithium industry and Shandong Ruifu lithium industry have achieved mass production. Domestic production of lithium hydroxide is expected to be about 57000 tons in 2018, an increase of 78.1 per cent over last year. On the one hand, the upstream capacity release, on the other hand, downstream, due to the development of high nickel has yet to wait and see, the market demand for high nickel has always been in a weak state. According to the SMM survey of upstream manufacturers, December orders were stable and did not change significantly. Overall, the price difference between battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will gradually narrow.

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